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Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the automotive market in 2020

Countries and companies around the world are trying to contain the outbreak in any way they can. Infected people are getting required medical treatments, while the ones who have been in contact with them are quarantined. Even with all these safety measures, the virus has managed to spread throughout continents.

The virus is already present in every inhabitable continent throughout the world and almost every country is seeing a rapid spread of the disease amongst its population. As so, every country is imposing restrictions on the people venturing outside their homes for work and other needs to limit the spread of the pandemic.

The automobile industry is responding to the calls from the government to aid in manufacturing the face masks and ventilators in these trying times. The global economy is suffering and approaching a standstill due to the coronavirus pandemic and the automobile industry is also undergoing a crisis. And the fear of an even bigger outbreak did and is making quite a lot of damage to the majority of industry sectors. One of the most affected sectors is the automotive industry and its associated businesses. Companies like Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (NYSE: (ttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HMC)), General Motors Company (NYSE: (ttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GM)), Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (OTC: (ttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NSANY)), Renault SA (OTC: (ttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RNLSY)), as well as Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: (ttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TSLA)) and Volkswagen AG (OTC: (ttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VWAGY)), were forced to stop their production facilities in China.

The Impact of the Novel Coronavirus on the Chinese Automotive Market

Chinese car market was the first to suffer the negative economic impacts of the pandemic. In the first two months of 2020, auto sales were down by 42%. In March, sales have likely decreased by another 25%, as buyers did not go back to the showrooms in full force. By the end of the first trimester, sales will have dropped by 36%
 

Still, the market may bounce back rapidly in the next few months. Recent surveys have shown that Chinese consumers are considering buying a car to avoid public transportation, taxis, or ride-hailing services, as they continue to be concerned about the virus.

The biggest issue for China now is similar to the one that Europe faced only one month ago: a potential disruption in the carmakers’ production lines. As the automotive supply chain is globalized and most industrial countries are currently in lockdown, suppliers outside of China cannot deliver the parts abroad. While the localization ratio is over 95% in China, this does not prevent it from having disruptions.

How Coronavirus is Impacting European Car Market

The European automotive market already faced several challenges at the start of 2020 with new

legislation imposing very strong targets on CO2 emissions.

The car market in Europe was down even before COVID-19 hit,  (ttps://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/passenger-car-registrations-7.4-first-two-months-of-2020-7.4-february) In March, sales have probably declined by two thirds. With all carmakers’ plants halted since the second half of March, potential shutdown of the plants until at least April 20th, and countrywide lockdowns still in full force until the end of the month, April car market results will be even lower.

Even if carmakers’ plants restart by the end of April, they will not be capable of producing at full capacity right away, as restarting a full supply chain is a complex task. Moreover, the working procedures in the plants will have to be adapted to sanitary restrictions such as one-meter distance between the employees and the disinfection of parts.

We should also remember that the lockdown across China was only 6 weeks long. Wuhan, the epicenter of the pandemic, was an exception, with an 11-week quarantine. For Europe, we predict the lockdown to be even longer as the governments waited too long before taking strict measures. The overall economy will, therefore, take a bigger hit in Europe than in China. The majority of experts predict a 5% recession in Europe in 2020, comparing to a 3-3.5% expansion in China this year.

As a result, buyers will delay their car purchases in 2020 and the offer shock will be followed by an even bigger demand shock.

Coronavirus’s Impact on Car Sales and Production in North America

North America was the last region to be touched by the coronavirus. While the North American market resisted the pandemic better in the first quarter compared to Europe or China (sales decreased by less than 5%), the virus will definitely have an impact on its full-year results.

It is difficult to assess right now to what extent coronavirus will influence the North American car industry. However, if we look at the 2008-2009 crisis, the auto market here was particularly hard hit, partially due to the lower welfare protections here compared to Europe.

Consequently, we believe that the auto market in North America will decline drastically over the next few months, despite  (ttps://fordauthority.com/2020/03/ford-offers-zero-percent-apr-financing-for-84-months/). We predict that in 2020, the market will be down by 25 to 30%, resulting in a loss of 4 to 5 million vehicles over the year.

The Global Impact of Coronavirus on the Car Industry

We have looked in detail at the three main automotive markets worldwide. If we extend the forecast for the market globally, we arrive at a decrease of 19 million cars (from around 89 million to 70 million cars), which represents a drop of 21% from 2019. This is based on several assumptions derived from today’s figures, but, unfortunately, we are quite confident that the figure will not be too

far from this number. While 2021 seems far away, carmakers and suppliers need to understand today how the automotive industry will bounce back and what structural changes the coronavirus crisis will bring to the market.