Эссе на тему: Introduction

Introduction

Dramatic events in the Middle East, initiated by the "Arab spring" of 2010-2011, can turn to the observer in different ways. These are mass democratic impulses, which include the rise of the political voice of Islam, the change of long-term leaders, civil wars, and the intervention of external actors. Often, such a wealth of political facts makes it difficult to understand the nature of the changes that are taking place both within the Arab states and in relations between them. Arab Spring as a wave of revolutions and attempts to make revolutions in the Arab countries came as a complete surprise to all political scientists, macro sociologists, futurologists and other specialists who were supposed to at least admit such a possibility. The growth of instability and the possibility of the collapse of the ruling regime in some Arab countries, including Egypt, was assumed by a number of researchers, including even quite successful forecasts of the course of events (Bradley, 2012), but not synchronous revolutionary events in a dozen countries. Nor did anyone imagine that the first regime to fall would be the economically successful and outwardly stable regime of Ben Ali in Tunisia...

Section 1. Background of the Arab Spring

Taking into account the theoretical foundations, in my opinion, it is advisable to single out three types of preconditions for the Arab Spring: economic, demographic and ideological transformation of the Arab society. Such an approach will make it possible to view the Arab Spring not as an event in a vacuum, but as a full-fledged part of international relations, the theoretical basis of which can help to explain the crisis.

The demographic transformation in the Arab world was marked by a transition in the ratio of population units of different ages, and in accordance with this, different social functions in society. If, overall, African countries were characterized by a confident positive balance in terms of fertility and mortality, as well as a relatively young population, then from the 1910s this began to change gradually. In all the Arab countries of North Africa, the fertility rate fell by a little less than half, and such changes even affected traditionally positive Saudi Arabia in this regard. Nevertheless, the increase in mortality was still low, as life expectancy increased along with the standard of living, which for the first time in the last decade before the Arab Spring exceeded the seventh decade. Only the number of young children under the age of 14 showed a downward trend, while young people in the range of 15-25 years old took an increasingly active part in society (Korotayev, Et. al., 2014). They then made up the bulk of the revolutionary mass. Thus, among other things, unexpected changes in demographic trends led to social exclusion and radicalization of a part of the youth who hoped to change outdated social patterns.

With regard to economic transformation, it has become a logical consequence of changing trends in the conduct of the economy and economy. The Arab world has always developed not as rapidly as the countries of the West, and the processes of globalization and liberalization of world markets that have rapidly taken their place have become a big challenge for the economies of the Maghreb and the Middle East. However, due to the need to integrate into these processes, which is quite due to the amount of reserves energy carriers in the region and the need for international cooperation, the Arab world quickly integrated into a new paradigm (Malik & Awadallah, 2013). As a result, the level of well-being of the population has increased, and hence its demands have increased. Thus, one of the flagships of the revolution was the demand for increased social welfare.

As for the ideological transformation, this aspect is especially important for the Arab world, since Islam plays a colossal role in the political, social and everyday life of the countries affected by the "Arab Spring". Liberal and individualistic values have been a culture shock for conservative Arabs, who also belong to high-context cultures. Moreover, the growing prosperity provoked an increase in literacy, in connection with which more and more people in their personal lives began to abandon religious postulates and traditional ways. The Western world is becoming less alien to the inhabitants of the region - more people interact with foreigners and travel abroad (Fargues & Fandrich, 2012). It is largely because of these factors that freedom becomes more normal and becomes a mass goal. Such ideological attitudes are transferred to political activity, as a result of which the violent overthrow of power looks like an attractive option for people. Therefore, the personal orientations of citizens are changing - along with this, traditional foundations are breaking down, and the authorities become the object of attacks as something that personifies lack of freedom...